The Referendum and the GBP

Now that Brexit has finally arrived, it’s possible to dispense with the endless series of predictions and hypotheses related to currency issues and discuss the concrete reality of a post-referendum British pound. For many of us, it doesn’t take sophisticated forex software to predict that the GBP would suffer in the immediate aftermath of this landmark decision. In keeping with the assessments of virtually all analysts, the Pound initially experienced a tre-mendous pricing shock as it became increasingly clear that the referendum was swinging away from the “remain” camp towards a definitive “Leave” vote. As the tallying of votes neared to a close, investors fled from the Pound, causing its value to plummet to levels which have not been seen for the past several decades.

Fortunately for both investors and the economy at large, however, the Pound has begun its path to recovery. Coming off of an immediate post-Brexit low which involved nearly 11% be-ing shaved off the Pound, the British currency has experienced a largely optimistic rebound, sitting currently at nearly 1.33 GBP / USD. It will be quite interesting to observe how the GBP will react to international and domestic policy maneuvers in the upcoming weeks. A number of significant decisions are quite likely looming in the short term, including whether or not the Bank of England will issue a rate cut in an effort to reinforce economic stability in this volatile period.

Although much of British politics have been unpredictable and turbulent, experts are in agreement that the GBP is behaving within clearly defined and expected patterns, at least for the moment. Given the fact that the UK has expressed that they will not initiate divorce proceedings from the EU until the beginning of the new year, it stands to reason that this de-lay will likely mitigate some of the risks associated with this currency. That being said, it is, perhaps, implausible to believe that the GBP will recover significantly or even approach pre-Brexit value until some sort of decisive announcement is made relating to not only the time-line for the pending Brexit, but also the finer details which will properly illuminate how this his-toric moment will influence the political, economic and cultural spheres of the country at large.

Although many experts continue to express their skepticism regarding the short-term outlook for the GBP, it may be worth keeping a close eye on to see if any forthcoming politi-cal actions catalyse investor enthusiasm. For those with industry-standard forex software, a concise, up-to-the minute evaluation would be immensely interesting to observe

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Isuru Karavita

He graduated from the university of Hertfordshire with a BEng(Hons) in Digital Communication and Electronic Engineering. 

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